Shas Supporters Shifted to Ben Gvir and UTJ as Election Results Reveal Major Changes in Chareidi Voting
New analysis of Israel’s election results indicates that Shas suffered significant losses among its traditional chareidi voters, with some shifting their support to United Torah Judaism and others backing Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party. The findings help explain why UTJ emerged with seven Knesset seats while Shas fell to six, reversing the usual balance between the two chareidi parties.
Attorney Avraham Justman, a member of Israel’s Central Elections Committee, discussed the voting patterns during an interview Monday night with Avi Mimran on Kol Chai Radio’s main news program. He described the decline in Shas support as particularly striking because it occurred not only among traditional and religious voters but also within established chareidi communities that have historically provided the party with reliable electoral backing.
According to Justman, UTJ’s improved performance was primarily the result of natural population growth within its voting base, supplemented by voters who had previously supported Shas. He said the movement between the parties was evident in several major chareidi population centers.
Among the cities where Shas experienced declining support were Yerushalayim, Bnei Brak, Modiin Illit, Beitar Illit, and Elad. Justman said the figures suggested that some voters had transferred their allegiance to UTJ, while others supported Otzma Yehudit, headed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.
A smaller number of former Shas voters apparently cast ballots for minor parties that failed to cross the electoral threshold, further reducing the number of votes available to the established chareidi factions.
Justman characterized the setback as unusually severe, saying Shas had suffered a blow unlike those it had experienced in previous election campaigns. He emphasized that the decline among chareidi voters was especially significant because the party has traditionally relied on strong support from those communities.
The results have raised questions about the ability of Shas to retain its traditional electoral coalition, which includes both Sephardic chareidi voters and religiously traditional Israelis who do not necessarily identify with the chareidi community.
Justman also examined the impact of several smaller parties that competed for chareidi votes, including Tzeva Shachor, Noam, and the party associated with Motti Leitner. Although these lists attracted some support, he assessed their overall effect on the final distribution of Knesset seats as relatively limited.
He also challenged the suggestion that the right-wing bloc would automatically have secured 61 seats if all ballots cast for parties that failed to cross the electoral threshold had instead gone to established right-wing factions. According to Justman, the electoral calculations were more complicated and did not necessarily support that conclusion.
Another issue addressed during the interview was the voting behavior of Gerer chassidim, whose participation had been closely watched because of internal tensions and questions surrounding the community’s mobilization for UTJ.
Justman said the available figures indicated that Gerer voters had turned out in numbers generally consistent with previous elections, rather than producing either a significant decline or an extraordinary surge in participation.
“Gur apparently came out to vote in the numbers they usually bring,” Justman said.
He explained that Gerer participation did not appear to have caused substantial damage to UTJ’s overall result. At the same time, there was no indication of an unusually large mobilization that might have helped the party capture an additional seat.
With voter turnout reaching high levels nationally, Justman said the possibility of UTJ securing an eighth mandate had become increasingly remote. The higher overall vote total meant that parties needed more votes to obtain each Knesset seat.
The discussion also turned to voting patterns in Arab communities, where Justman raised questions about exceptionally high turnout figures reported in certain localities.
“There are very difficult questions about the Arab sector. There are questions that arise, and there are new discoveries that I am not yet certain about,” Justman said.
