Morning Money — Friday Weekly Recap, November 6, 2026
Ottawa’s investment push meets a volatile market
Thursday’s federal budget proposes new investment incentives and infrastructure spending, with a C$62.3 billion deficit projected for 2026–27. The aim is to strengthen productivity and reduce dependence on U.S. trade. For Canadian businesses, the opportunity is better support for expansion; for households, the test is whether investment eventually delivers stronger wages and more affordable living. These are budget plans, with implementation still ahead.
Initial enthusiasm after Democrats won both chambers of the U.S. Congress gave way to concerns about tighter AI oversight and slower data-centre expansion. Thursday’s selloff took the S&P 500 down 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite down 5.52%. Canada was pulled into the retreat: the TSX lost 2% to 35,605.27. The lesson from this week is how quickly expectations can change—even when the underlying news hasn’t yet become policy.
Before this morning’s jobs releases, TSX 60 futures were down 0.3% at 5:42 a.m. ET. At 6:24 a.m., Nasdaq-100 futures rebounded 1.41%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.29% and Dow futures fell 0.91%. These are pre-data readings, not the market’s reaction to the employment numbers or final weekly returns.
Oil gives back a big part of its recent surge
Crude was heading for a steep weekly decline as traders reconsidered the likelihood of further escalation in the Iran war. That could eventually help Canadian fuel and transportation costs, but it also pressures energy-company revenues. Tanker attacks and shipping disruptions remain risks, so lower prices do not mean the supply problem has disappeared.
Earnings showed two sides of the economy
Suncor increased its quarterly dividend 10% to C$0.66 after strong cash generation. Manulife reported record core earnings of C$2.1 billion, while its reported shareholder net income declined to C$1.4 billion. That distinction matters: adjusted performance measures and bottom-line profit can tell different stories.
Just released: U.S. hiring beats the forecast
October payrolls rose 165,000, versus the 65,000 expected in a Reuters poll. Unemployment was 4.1%, and hourly wages rose 3.1% over the year. Stronger hiring supports demand, including for Canadian exports, but could keep markets cautious about how quickly borrowing costs might ease.
Tuesday, November 10 brings U.S. consumer inflation and the Bank of Canada’s policy deliberations summary. Thursday brings Canadian building permits; Friday brings Canadian manufacturing and wholesale data alongside U.S. producer prices. Watch whether inflation pressures are broadening, and whether business activity backs up Ottawa’s growth ambitions. Those signals will matter beyond the election headlines.
