Democrat James Talarico Defeats Trump-Backed Ken Paxton in Historic Senate Upset

Democrat James Talarico has defeated Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a stunning U.S. Senate election upset, becoming the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas since 1994 and delivering one of the most consequential victories of the 2026 midterm elections.

Decision Desk HQ projected Talarico as the winner Tuesday night, according to a report published by The 19th at 10:15 p.m. Eastern, marking a dramatic political reversal in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for more than three decades.

Talarico’s victory also means that Texas will send a Democrat to the U.S. Senate for the first time since Lloyd Bentsen left office in 1993. Republicans have controlled both of the state’s Senate seats ever since.

The outcome represents a major setback for President Donald Trump, who endorsed Paxton and sought to maintain Republican control of a Senate seat considered essential to the party’s efforts to retain its majority in Washington.

Paxton, a prominent conservative and longtime Texas attorney general, entered the general election with Trump’s backing and the support of some of the Republican Party’s most influential donors. His defeat came despite an enormous financial effort to preserve Republican control of the seat.

Among Paxton’s most prominent supporters was billionaire Elon Musk, who reportedly spent nearly $200 million during the final stages of the campaign in an effort to secure a Republican victory. The contest became the most expensive Senate race in Texas history.

Talarico, a Texas state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, built his campaign around concerns about rising living costs, political corruption, and the influence of wealthy donors on government. He presented himself as a Democrat willing to challenge both the Republican establishment and his own party’s political assumptions.

His campaign emphasized economic issues, particularly the financial pressures facing working families, while attempting to attract independent voters and Republicans dissatisfied with the state’s political leadership.

The race also became one of the nation’s most contentious campaigns over cultural and social issues.

Paxton also attempted to portray his Democratic opponent as insufficiently masculine, referring to him as “low-T,” a derogatory expression associated with low testosterone levels.

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller joined the criticism, describing Talarico as the “first transgender Senate candidate,” despite the claim being false.

Talarico sought to counter those attacks by concentrating on economic concerns and presenting his religious background as an important influence on his political views.

During the campaign, he also moderated some of his previous positions on transgender-related policies, telling Fox News that he would oppose transgender athletes participating in girls’ sports if “it endangers safety or fairness.”

He additionally said he would support federal legislation prohibiting gender-transition surgeries for minors.

The Democrat’s religious background became a distinctive element of his campaign, particularly as he discussed issues on which he disagreed with conservative Christian voters.

At an October CNN event, Talarico addressed abortion policy by arguing that Americans with differing religious interpretations could nevertheless work together to reduce the number of abortions.

“We’re both Christians, and the Bible is silent on the issue of abortion. It means you and I both have to look at different scriptures to try to come to a conclusion,” he said.

“But what I think we can do is actually come together on reducing the number of unplanned pregnancies and the number of abortions. Because if we treat this issue as a public health problem and not a culture war problem, then we can actually make progress together.”

Talarico’s victory is especially significant given Texas Republicans’ long record of success in statewide elections. The last Democrat to win a statewide contest was Bob Bullock, who was reelected lieutenant governor in 1994.