Four New York Races Could Determine Who Controls Congress After Tuesday’s Elections
Four closely contested congressional elections in New York could play a decisive role in determining which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives following Tuesday’s midterm elections, with Republicans fighting to preserve their narrow majority and Democrats hoping that victories in the Empire State will help propel them back into power.
Although New York remains overwhelmingly Democratic in statewide elections, several competitive House districts have become major battlegrounds, attracting millions of dollars in campaign spending and national attention. Both parties view the state as essential to their efforts to secure the 218 seats needed for a House majority.
New York Democratic Party chairman Jay Jacobs expressed confidence that his party would successfully defend all its existing congressional seats while potentially capturing two additional districts in the Hudson Valley and upstate New York. He predicted that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, “will be the next speaker of the House.”
State Republican chairman Ed Cox, meanwhile, pointed to the GOP’s success in New York during the 2022 midterms, when Republican victories in several competitive districts helped deliver control of the House to the party.
Republicans currently hold 218 House seats, compared with 214 Democrats, one independent member, and two vacancies, leaving little room for losses as voters prepare to head to the polls.
Among the most closely watched contests is the race in New York’s 17th Congressional District, covering portions of the Hudson Valley north of New York City. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is seeking another term against Democrat Cait Conley, an Army combat veteran who subsequently held a national security position in the Biden administration.
Lawler’s political survival is particularly important to Republicans because he was the only GOP candidate among New York’s four major 2022 congressional pickups to retain his seat during the 2024 elections. Democrats successfully reclaimed the other three districts, leaving Lawler as the remaining Republican incumbent from that wave of victories.
Another major contest is unfolding in the North Country, where Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection created an open seat in a district that has traditionally favored Republicans.
The GOP nominee, businessman Anthony Constantino, owns a printing company and has received President Trump’s endorsement. Constantino has reportedly invested approximately $17 million of his personal fortune into the campaign, making the contest one of the most heavily self-financed House races of the election cycle.
Constantino faces Democrat Blake Gendebien, a farmer who is attempting to capitalize on divisions within the local Republican organization. Constantino’s victory over a primary opponent supported by established Republican and Conservative Party leaders left lingering tensions within the district’s political structure.
The Conservative Party ultimately declined to place a candidate on its ballot line, an unusual development that could complicate Republican efforts to consolidate conservative voters behind Constantino.
Political consultant O’Brien “OB” Murray suggested that the internal Republican disagreements could create “the perfect storm for the Democrats,” particularly with Democratic organizations investing heavily in an attempt to flip the seat.
The Democratic House Majority PAC has reportedly committed approximately $1.4 million to the contest, while Vice President JD Vance was scheduled to appear alongside Constantino at a campaign event Monday in a final effort to energize Republican voters.
On Long Island, two Democratic incumbents are defending districts that have demonstrated a willingness to support Republican candidates, making both contests important opportunities for the GOP to gain seats.
In the 3rd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is facing former Republican Assemblyman Michael LiPetri in a rematch of their 2024 election. Suozzi prevailed in that contest by approximately three percentage points, and Republicans believe the district remains competitive, particularly because President Trump carried it in the presidential election that same year.
