Just In - Polymarket Projects Democrat James Talarico to Flip Texas Senate Seat
Prediction market Polymarket has projected that Democrat James Talarico will win Texas’s open U.S. Senate seat, assigning him a 99 percent chance of victory over Republican Ken Paxton.
The call, issued as early returns came in on election night, would mark the first Democratic Senate win in the state since 1988.
Partial results from multiple counties showed Talarico holding a clear lead, with vote shares in the mid-to-high 50s in the ballots counted so far.
The contest, for the seat vacated by John Cornyn, had been rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by forecasters in the final weeks.
Talarico, a state representative, and Paxton, the state’s attorney general, ran the most expensive Senate campaign on record. Traders on Polymarket and other platforms had already favored Talarico before polls closed; the odds tightened sharply once counting began.
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